Simulating effects of agricultural support policies under price volatility – a China case study
by
 
CAO Liangyue

Title
Simulating effects of agricultural support policies under price volatility – a China case study

Series
Conference papers

Series Issue
20.2

Publication Date
30/04/2020

Description
This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to simulate the economic effects of different agricultural support policies to the price volatility of agricultural staples, using China as a case study. The model is adapted from a publically available model called PEP-w-t. This paper presents several modifications made to the PEP-w-t for the purpose of this study. The modelling results show that overall the existing policy settings in China have adverse impacts on food security and there are better alternatives available to help address rural-urban income disparities. Removing current policies is found to result in the highest potential gain to the Chinese economy measured by the change in gross domestic product, but also has the largest adverse effect on agricultural households. A simulated policy with a direct lump sum income transfer to agricultural households improves income equity between rural and urban households, and also brings a gain to the gross domestic product in China. Furthermore, the modelling shows insights on the effects of changes in Chinese agricultural support policy on Australia’s exports of coarse grains and wheat.

Resource URL Description
0 : Simulating effects of agricultural support policies under price volatility – a China case study – PDF [1.5 MB]
 
1 : Simulating effects of agricultural support policies under price volatility – a China case study – MS Word [0.67 MB]

Resource URL
1030261

Publisher
ABARES : Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences : Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment

Author
CAO Liangyue
 
THORPE Sally
 
FELL James

Right Management
Use constraints: copyright
 
All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence, save for content supplied by third parties, logos and the Commonwealth Coat of Arms.
 
Other constraints: This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as: Cao, L, Thorpe, S & Fell, J 2020, Simulating effects of agricultural support policies under price volatility – a China case study, ABARES Conference Paper 20.2, for the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Conference, Canberra, April, CC BY 4.0. https://doi.org/10.25814/5ea10298dcd61

Identifier
ISSN 1447-3666
 
ISBN 978-1-74323-480-8
 
DOI https://doi.org/10.25814/5ea10298dcd61

Asset Name
pb_seasp9aat20200430