Australian crop report: June 2014 No.170

Title
Australian crop report: June 2014 No.170

Series
Australian Crop Report

Series Issue
No. 170 June 2014

Publication Date
11/06/2014

Description
The report is a quarterly report with a consistent and regular assessment of crop prospects for major field crops, forcasts of area, yield and production and a summary of seasonal conditions on a state by state basis. Key Issues: 2014-15 winter crop production * Seasonal conditions have been generally favourable for planting the 2014-15 winter crops in Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and southern and central New South Wales. * However, in most cropping regions of northern New South Wales and Queensland, seasonal conditions have been less favourable and presently there are low levels of soil moisture in parts of these regions. * The Bureau of Meteorology's latest three-month rainfall outlook (June to August 2014), issued on 28 May 2014, suggests a drier than average winter for much of southern Australia and a hotter than average winter for all of Australia. * According to the Bureau of Meteorology (ENSO Wrap-Up, issued 3 June 2014), there is at least a 70 per cent chance of an El Nino event developing in 2014. The impact of an El Nino event on crop production is not uniform and is difficult to predict. * While below average rainfall is often associated with an El Nino event, the timing of the rainfall also influences the effect of these events on crop production. For example, several El Nino events over the past three decades have had no significant adverse effect on winter crop production in eastern Australia (including South Australia). * Total area planted to winter crops is forecast to rise by 1 per cent in 2014-15 to 22.6 million hectares. Expected favourable gross margins from growing wheat and canola are forecast to lead to a 2 per cent increase in wheat area to 13.8 million hectares and a 3 per cent rise in canola area to 2.7 million hectares. In contrast, the area planted to barley is forecast to fall by 4 per cent to 3.8 million hectares. * Total winter crop production is forecast to fall by 12 per cent in 2014-15 to around 38.8 million tonnes, reflecting an assumed fall in yields in Western Australia and South Australia from the above average achieved last year. * Wheat production is forecast to fall by 9 per cent to 24.6 million tonnes, barley production is forecast to decline by 22 per cent to 7.5 million tonnes and canola production is forecast to fall by 8 per cent to 3.5 million tonnes. * Sufficient and timely rainfall over winter will be critical to the development of winter crops, particularly in those areas where soil moisture levels are presently low. Yields are likely to be lower than currently assumed if sufficient and timely rainfall is not received. 2013-14 summer crop production * Harvesting of the 2013-14 summer crops is now largely complete. The estimates for summer crop production have been revised down from the February 2014 edition of the Australian Crop Report. * Total summer crop production is estimated to have fallen by 33 per cent in 2013-14 to 3.7 million tonnes. * Grain sorghum production is estimated to have fallen by 50 per cent to 1.1 million tonnes; rice production is estimated to have declined by 29 per cent to 825 000 tonnes; cotton production is estimated to have declined by around 11 per cent to 910 000 tonnes of cotton lint and 1.3 million tonnes of cottonseed.

Resource URL Description
0 : Australian crop report, June No.170 2014 - Report - PDF [1.6 MB]
 
1 : Australian crop report, June No.170 2014 - Report - MS Word [1.8 MB]
 
2 : Crop data underpinning: Australian crop report, June No.170 2014 - MS Excel [0.3 MB]
 
3 : State data underpinning: Australian crop report, June No.170 2014 - MS Excel [0.2 MB]

Resource URL
1027313

Publisher
ABARES : Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences : Department of Agriculture

Right Management
Use constraints: copyright
 
Other constraints: Licence base:Copyright
 
Other constraints: Licence type:Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australian Licence (CC By)
 
Other constraints: Ownership of intellectual property rights: Unless otherwise noted, copyright (and any other intellectual property rights, if any) in this publication is owned by the Commonwealth of Australia (referred to as the Commonwealth). Creative Commons licence: All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence, save for content supplied by third parties, logos and the Commonwealth Coat of Arms. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au
 
Other constraints: This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as: ABARES 2014, Australian crop report, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, June, CC BY 3.0

Identifier
ISBN 978-1-74323-187-6
 
ISSN 1447-8358

Asset Name
pb_aucrpd9aba_003201406_11a