Overview * The value of farm production in 2018-19 is forecast to fall 3 per cent to $58 billion, which is still above the 10 year average of $56 billion. * The value of crop production is forecast to drive this decline (down 7 per cent to $29 billion), due lack of rainfall in key growing regions along the east coast. * Partially offsetting falling production are forecast increases in the price of broadacre crops and strong production in Western Australia, which provides a buffer for the national outlook. * The value and volume of production is not forecast to be as low nationally as in previous drought events, which were more widespread. * The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to almost $30 billion, driven by higher turn-off. * Farm profitability is likely to be lower in 2018-19 due primarily to lower production and rising input costs, with the most severe impacts in those regions affected by drought. * Agricultural export earnings are forecast to fall by 7 per cent to $45 billion due to lower exportable supplies. * The entry into force of the Trans Pacific Partnership will improve market access for Australian exporters and give competitive advantages over non members. * The continuing trade conflict between the United States and China continues to be a key source of uncertainty in the outlook for Australian agricultural exports.