Metadata
Title:
Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2013
Series:
Agricultural commodities
Series Issue:
December quarter 2013
Publication Date:
10/12/2013
Description:
ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2013-14, which updates the forecasts ABARES released in September 2013. Key Issues * The value of Australia's farm exports is forecast to be around $38 billion in 2013-14. If realised, this will be a record high in nominal terms and around 8 per cent above the average over five years to 2012-13 in real terms. * Export earnings from crops are forecast to decline by 7.4 per cent to around $21.3 billion in 2013-14, while export earnings from livestock and livestock products are forecast to increase by 11.9 per cent to $16.7 billion in 2013-14. * World prices of most grains and oilseeds are forecast to average lower in 2013-14, because of increased production in major producing regions. However, the adverse impact on Australia is expected to be partially offset by an assumed lower value of the Australian dollar in 2013-14 * Farm commodities for which export earnings are forecast to increase in 2013-14 include beef and veal (up 12 per cent), dairy products (24 per cent) and wine (4 per cent). In contrast, lower export earnings are forecast for wheat (down 6 per cent), canola (31 per cent) and cotton (19 per cent). * Farm production, in aggregate, is forecast to rise by 2.9 per cent in 2013-14. This compares with a decline of 2.0 per cent in 2012-13. * The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 6.3 per cent to $50.9 billion in 2013-14, after declining slightly by 0.3 per cent to $47.9 billion in 2012-13. * The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 3.6 per cent in 2013-14 to $28.8 billion while the gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 9.9 per cent to $22.1 billion. * Export earnings from fisheries products are forecast to increase by 6.2 per cent to around $1.25 billion in 2013-14, following a decline of 4.2 per cent in 2012-13. * Drought in Queensland is forecast to reduce winter crop production in the state by 20 per cent in 2013-14. Summer crops are also forecast to decline in 2013-14, with grain sorghum down 25 per cent. Drought conditions have also forced an increase in the cattle turn-off in Queensland, which was 12 per cent higher in the first four months of 2013-14 compared to the same period last year. * Overall, farm cash income of broadacre farms in drought declared areas in Queensland is projected to decline from an average of $148 400 a farm in 2012-13 to an average of just $55 000 a farm in 2013-14. Farm cash income projected for 2013-14 is around 45 per cent below the average farm cash income in real terms for the 10 years to 2011-12. * Average farm business profit in drought declared areas of Queensland is expected to decline from an average profit of $24 200 a farm in 2012-13 to an average loss of $52 000 a farm in 2013-14. Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts are: * World economic growth is assumed to be 2.8 per cent in 2013, before improving to 3.4 per cent in 2014. * In Australia, economic growth is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2013-14, compared with growth of 2.8 per cent in 2012-13. * The Australian dollar is assumed to average US92 cents and TWI 72 in 2013-14, down from US102 cents and TWI 77 in 2012-13.
Resource URL Description:
0 : Agricultural Commodities: December quarter 2013 - Report - PDF [10.0 MB]

1 : Agricultural Commodities: December quarter 2013 - Report with lower resolution images - PDF [4.9 MB]

2 : Agricultural Commodities: December quarter 2013 - Report - Complex Type [4.9 MB]

3 : Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2013 - Commodities - data tables - MS Excel [0.2 MB]

4 : Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2013 - Statistics - data tables - MS Excel [0.7 MB]
Publisher:
ABARES : Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences : Department of Agriculture
Author:
ABARES
Right Management:
Use constraints: copyright

Other constraints: Licence type:Copyright

Other constraints: All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence, save for content supplied by third parties, logos and the Commonwealth Coat of Arms

Other constraints: This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as: ABARES 2013, Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2013. CC BY 3.0
Identifier:
ISBN 978-1-74323-165-4

ISSN 189-5627
Asset Name:
pb_agcomd9abcc004201312_11a