This short report describes the results of modelling the impact of China's barley tariff on Australian barley exports and the agricultural sector by 2025. It says that, in the short term, the decision to impose an 80.5% tariff on Australian barley on 19 May 2020 will have a minimal impact on Australian barley production but trade in Australian barley to China would effectively cease. The modelling results indicate that, by 2025, about 40% of the barley originally destined to China would be diverted to other countries. Over the medium term, producers would respond to the new market conditions and move to other crops. Overall, it is estimated that about 20% of Australia's barley exports to China would be lost to Australia's agricultural sector in terms of reduced gross value of production if expanded market opportunities are not found.