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AgCommodities2014.No1_Ver1.1.0.pdf
Resource Name:
AgCommodities2014.No1_Ver1.1.0.pdf
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11.00 MB
Resource Type:
Pdf Documents
Metadata
Title:
Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2014
Series:
Agricultural commodities
Series Issue:
Volume 4 No.1
Publication Date:
04/03/2014
Description:
This report contains ABARES' latest outlook over the short (2013-14 and 2014-15) to medium term (to 2018-19) for Australia's key agricultural commodities. Also included in this issue are two articles titled Farm performance: broadacre and dairy farms, 2011-12 to 2013-14 and Productivity in the broadacre and dairy industries. A limited number of printed copies will be available by contacting info.abares@agriculture.gov.au Key Issues Commodity forecasts and projections * Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to decline to around $38.3 billion in 2014-15 from a forecast $39.4 billion in 2013-14. It is assumed that the broadacre livestock sector will begin to reduce slaughter and rebuild herd and flock numbers during 2014-15 under the assumption of a return to average seasonal conditions. * Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2014-15 include wheat (2 per cent), cheese (16 per cent), skim milk powder (12 per cent), sugar (4 per cent) and wine (3 per cent). Offsetting these rises are forecast falls in export earnings from beef and veal (5 per cent), cotton (12 per cent), barley (29 per cent) and canola (35 per cent). * By the end of the medium term (2018-19), the value of farm exports is projected to be around $39.3 billion (in 2013-14 dollars), 11 per cent higher than the average of the five years to 2012-13. * The gross value of farm production is forecast to fall slightly to around $50.5 billion in 2014-15, following a forecast increase of 6.6 per cent to $51 billion in 2013-14. * The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 4 per cent to $22.9 billion in 2014-15, following a forecast increase of 9.4 per cent in 2013-14. The gross value of crop production is forecast to decline by 4.9 per cent to $27.6 billion in 2014-15, after a forecast increase of 4.5 per cent in 2013-14. * Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 6 per cent to around $1.27 billion in 2014-15, after increasing by a forecast 2.5 per cent in 2013-14. * The above commodity forecasts and projections are based on the assumption that world economic activity will increase by 3.4 per cent in 2014, after rising by 2.9 per cent in 2013. World economic growth is assumed to strengthen to 3.8 per cent in 2015 and 2016, before easing gradually to around 3.6 per cent a year toward 2019. * In Australia, economic activity is assumed to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2013-14 and 2014-15. Toward 2018-19, economic growth is assumed to average around 3 per cent a year. * The Australian dollar is assumed to average around US85c in 2014-15, compared with an assumed average of US90c in 2013-14. It is assumed to depreciate to around US83c by 2018-19. Farm financial performance * The financial performance of Australian broadacre farms in 2013-14 differs markedly across states and regions. Large falls in farm incomes are projected in regions of Queensland and northern New South Wales which have been subject to drought conditions. Queensland broadacre farm cash income is projected to decline to a record low of $39 000 per farm on average in 2013-14. * In contrast, farm cash incomes in Western Australia and South Australia are projected to be the highest in 30 years as a result of record winter grain production. Farm cash income in 2013-14 is projected to average $317 000 per farm for Western Australian broadacre farms and $231 000 per farm for South Australian broadacre farms. * Farm cash income is projected to increase for dairy farms in all states in 2013-14 as farmgate milk prices rise. At the national level, average farm cash income for dairy farms is projected to rise from an average of $44 200 in 2012-13 to an average of $129 000 per farm in 2013-14. Broadacre productivity * Productivity in broadacre industries grew at a trend rate of 1 per cent a year between 1977-78 and 2011-12. Over this period, the broadacre industry maintained output levels largely unchanged, despite reducing input use by an average of 1 per cent a year. * Productivity growth for the dairy industry averaged 1.6 per cent a year between 1978-79 and 2011-12. Productivity grew most strongly in the decade following deregulation in 2000.
Resource URL Description:
0 : Agricultural Commodities: March quarter 2014 - Report (revised 2014-03-04T20:10) - PDF [11.0 MB]

1 : Agricultural Commodities: March quarter 2014 - Report with lower resolution images (revised 2014-03-04T20:10) - PDF [5.8 MB]

2 : Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2014 - Commodities - data tables - MS Excel [0.3 MB]

3 : Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2014 - Statistics - data tables - MS Excel [0.7 MB]
Publisher:
ABARES : Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences : Department of Agriculture
Author:
ABARES
Right Management:
Use constraints: copyright

Other constraints: Licence type:Copyright

Other constraints: All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence, save for content supplied by third parties, logos and the Commonwealth Coat of Arms

Other constraints: This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as: ABARES 2014, Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2014. CC BY 3.0
Identifier:
ISBN 978-1-76003-060-5

ISSN 189-5627
Asset Name:
pb_agcomd9abcc004201403_11a