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Title:
Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2017
Series:
Agricultural commodities
Series Issue:
December quarter 2017
Publication Date:
12/12/2017
Description:
Overview The December edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2017-18, which updates the outlook released in September 2017. Key Issues Commodity forecasts * In 2017-18 the gross value of farm production is forecast to decrease by 7 per cent to $59.1 billion. This follows a record $63.4 billion in 2016-17. Nevertheless, the 2017-18 forecast is 8 per cent higher than the average of $54.9 billion over the five years to 2016-17, in nominal terms. * The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to $29.7 billion in 2017-18, driven by increases in the forecast value of milk, wool and lamb. This is 17 per cent higher than the average of $25.4 billion over the five years to 2016-17, in nominal terms. * The gross value of crop production is forecast to decrease by 16 per cent to $29.4 billion in 2017-18. This largely reflects a forecast fall in crop production following exceptionally high yields in 2016-17 but is close to the average value of crop production over the five years to 2016-17, in nominal terms. * The rainfall event in early December across south-east Australia may result in a downgrade of grain quality and will improve pasture availability for livestock producers. * Total farm export earnings are forecast to decrease by 3 per cent to $47.1 billion in 2017-18. * The fall in export earnings is driven by expected declines for wheat (down 18 per cent), canola (52 per cent), barley (41 per cent), chickpeas (32 per cent), sugar (13 per cent) and rock lobster (2 per cent). * Export earnings are forecast increase for beef and veal (up 12 per cent), wool (20 per cent), cotton (18 per cent), wine (12 per cent), dairy products (7 per cent), lamb (7 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (5 per cent) and mutton (26 per cent). * Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to remain relatively unchanged in 2017-18 at $1.4 billion. * In Australian dollar terms, export prices for barley, butter, cheese, lamb, mutton, sorghum, wheat, wine and wool are forecast to increase in 2017-18. Export prices for beef and veal, canola, chickpeas, cotton, live feeder/slaughter cattle, sugar and rock lobster are forecast to fall. Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: * World economic growth is assumed to be 3.5 per cent in 2017 and 3.6 per cent in 2018. * Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.8 per cent in 2017-18. * The Australian dollar is assumed to average US77 cents in 2017-18, higher than the average of US75 cents in 2016-17. Boxes on agricultural issues Seasonal conditions in Australia * The start of spring 2017 saw well below average rainfall but late season rainfall has increased soil moisture levels, improving prospects for summer crops and benefiting pasture growth in northern, central and eastern Australia. * While late season rainfall has benefited pasture production it is likely that this rainfall has arrived too late to benefit winter crop production across much of south-eastern Australia. * The climate outlook for summer 2017-18 indicates that there is a roughly equal chance of above and below median rainfall for most of Australia. * The Bureau of Meteorology has raised its ENSO Outlook to LA NINA. While La Nina typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during late spring and summer, sea surface temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean and closer to Australia are not typical of a La Nina event, reducing the likelihood of widespread above average summer rainfall. Share of agricultural production exported * ABARES estimates that Australia exported around 70 per cent of agricultural production in the three years to 2015-16. * The agriculture sector is highly reliant on transport, processing and port infrastructure to achieve this level of exports. * Policies and investment that result in more efficient supply chains are highly beneficial to agricultural businesses and help ensure export competitiveness.
Resource URL Description:
0 : Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2017 - Report - PDF [14.1 MB]

1 : Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2017 - Report with lower resolution images - PDF [5.3 MB]

2 : Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2017 - Infographic - PDF [0.9 MB]

3 : Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2017 - Commodities - data tables. - MS Excel [0.08 MB]

4 : Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2017 - Statistics - data tables. - MS Excel [0.2 MB]
Publisher:
ABARES : Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences : Department of Agriculture
Author:
ABARES
Right Management:
Use constraints: copyright

Other constraints: Licence type: Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2017

Other constraints: All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence, save for content supplied by third parties, logos and the Commonwealth Coat of Arms. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence is a standard form licence agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this publication provided you attribute the work. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)

Other constraints: This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as: ABARES 2017, Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2017. CC BY 4.0
Identifier:
ISBN 978-1-74323-366-5

ISSN 1839-5627
Asset Name:
pb_agcomd9abcc20171212_IhhYv
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