Metadata
Title:
Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019
Series:
Agricultural commodities
Series Issue:
June quarter 2019
Publication Date:
18/06/2019
Description:
Overview The gross value of agricultural production in 2019-20 is forecast to be $59 billion, with export earnings of $45 billion. * Agricultural exports are forecast to fall overall, weighed by lower livestock production and exportable supplies. * A lower Australian dollar, strong livestock prices and some recovery in crop production will help to support export earnings in 2019-20. * Crop exports are forecast to increase by 3% to $23 billion, and production is expected to show some recovery in drought affected areas. * An improvement in seasonal conditions is expected to reduce livestock turnoff and exportable product as producers look to rebuild herds and flocks. * World indicator prices for most major crops including wheat and barley are forecast to decline because of increases in global production and reduced feed demand in China. * Seasonal conditions at the start of the 2019-20 winter season are more favourable compared with the same period last year, with prospects for the year depending on conditions during the coming spring. Commodity export forecasts In 2019-20 export earnings are forecast to rise for barley (up 15%), canola (20%), chickpeas (23%), sugar (13%), wheat (up 24%) and wine (11%) driven mainly by increased production. * World export prices of wheat and coarse grains are forecast to fall due to higher global supplies. * Prices of oilseeds are also forecast to fall reflecting lower feed demand following the outbreak of African Swine Fever in China's pig herd. Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2019-20 for beef and veal (down 15%), cheese (5%), lamb (9%), live feeder/slaughter cattle (13%), mutton (26%) and wool (11%) driven mainly driven by falls in production as herds and flocks are rebuilt. Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 10% in 2019-20 to $1.7 billion. Commodity production forecasts The value of crop production is forecast to be $30 billion in 2019-20, unchanged from last year. * National grain, oilseed and pulse production are forecast to increase by 20% to 36.4 million tonnes. This is 10% below the 10 year average to 2018-19. Irrigated crop production is forecast to remain low due to low water availability. * Prices received are forecast to be lower. Improved seasonal conditions are expected to lead to a decline in feed prices by reducing the need for supplementary feeding of livestock and increasing the production of fodder, grain and pasture. The value of livestock production is forecast to be $29 billion. * Lower opening herd and flock numbers and an assumed improvement in seasonal conditions will encourage livestock producers to restock. * Dairy production is forecast to increase marginally, reflecting an assumed improvement in seasonal conditions. * Wool production is forecast to be lower, constrained by lower flock numbers. Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions. On the demand side income growth in Australia's major export markets remains above the global average. * World economic growth is assumed to be 3.3% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020. * Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 2.8% in 2019-20. * The Australian dollar is assumed to average US70 cents in 2019-20, lower than the average of US72 cents in 2018-19. On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be around average. * Prospects for winter 2019-20 have improved following above average rainfall during May in South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales. Below average rainfall was reported in Western Australia, northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth.
Resource URL Description:
0 : Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019 - Report - PDF [11.5 MB]

1 : Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019 - Report with lower resolution images - PDF [6.3 MB]

2 : Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019 - Agricultural overview - PDF [1.4 MB]

3 : Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019 - Economic overview - PDF [1.0 MB]

4 : Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019 - Seasonal conditions - PDF [2.0 MB]

5 : Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019 - Wheat outlook - PDF [1.1 MB]

6 : Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019 - Coarse grains outlook - PDF [1.2 MB]

7 : Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019 - Oilseeds outlook - PDF [1.1 MB]

8 : Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019 - Natural fibres outlook - PDF [1.2 MB]

9 : Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019 - Beef and veal outlook - PDF [1.1 MB]

10 : Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019 - Sheep meat outlook - PDF [0.8 MB]

11 : Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019 - Dairy outlook - PDF [1.0 MB]

12 : Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019 - Commodities - data tables (revised on 25 July 2019) - MS Excel [0.06 MB]

13 : Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019 - Statistics - data tables (revised on 17 July 2019) - MS Excel [0.5 MB]
Publisher:
ABARES : Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences : Department of Agriculture
Author:
ABARES
Right Management:
Use constraints: copyright

Other constraints: Licence type: Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2019

Other constraints: All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence, save for content supplied by third parties, logos and the Commonwealth Coat of Arms. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence is a standard form licence agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this publication provided you attribute the work. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)

Other constraints: This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as: ABARES 2019, Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2019, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra, June . CC BY 4.0. https://doi.org/10.25814/5cf8f38cb3781
Identifier:
ISBN 978-1-74323-437-2

ISSN 1839-5627

DOI https://doi.org/10.25814/5cf8f38cb3781
Asset Name:
pb_agcomd9abcc20190618_kqvU7Mj