Metadata
Title:
Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2017
Series:
Agricultural commodities
Series Issue:
March quarter 2017
Publication Date:
07/03/2017
Description:
Overview The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2021-22. The outlook will be an important focal point at the conference and underpin many presentations delivered by ABARES speakers at the conference. The report provides updated commodity forecasts, as well as articles on the EU sheep meat industry; farm performance of broadacre and dairy farms; productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries; and disaggregating farm performance by size. Key Issues Commodity forecasts * The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 8.3 per cent to a record $63.8 billion in 2016-17 before easing by 3.9 per cent to a forecast $61.3 billion in 2017-18. Despite the forecast decline, the gross value of farm production in 2017-18 would be 17.3 per cent higher than the average of $52.3 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. * The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 4.4 per cent to $31.2 billion in 2017-18, following a forecast decrease of 2.6 per cent in 2016-17. If this forecast is realised, the gross value of livestock production in 2017-18 would be around 28 per cent higher than the average of $24.4 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. * The gross value of crop production is forecast to decrease by 11.3 per cent to $30 billion in 2017-18, after a forecast increase of 20.2 per cent in 2016-17. The decrease follows record production of wheat and barley in 2016-17, which resulted from favourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring. If this forecast is realised, the gross value of crop production in 2017-18 would be around 8 per cent higher than the average of $27.9 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. * In 2021-22 the gross value of farm production is projected to be around $59.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars), 8.6 per cent higher than the average of $54.9 billion over the five years to 2015-16 (also in 2016-17 dollars). In 2021-22 the gross value of crop production is projected to be around $29.0 billion and the gross value of livestock production is projected to be around $30.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars). * Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $48.7 billion in 2017-18, higher than the forecast $47.7 billion in 2016-17. * The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2017-18 are beef and veal (up 1 per cent), wool (10 per cent), dairy products (11 per cent), sugar (10 per cent), cotton (35 per cent), wine (5 per cent), lamb (3 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (4 per cent), rock lobster (6 per cent) and mutton (1 per cent). * Forecast increases in 2017-18 are expected to be partly offset by expected declines in export earnings for wheat (down 9 per cent), coarse grains (11 per cent), canola (6 per cent) and chickpeas (42 per cent). * In Australian dollar terms, export prices of wool, dairy products, sugar, wine, lamb, barley, canola, rock lobster and mutton are forecast to increase in 2017-18. Export prices for cotton and chickpeas are forecast to fall. Prices for beef and veal, wheat and live feeder/slaughter cattle are forecast to remain around the same as in 2016-17. * In 2021-22 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $46.6 billion (in 2016-17 dollars), 8 per cent higher than the average of $43.1 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. * The value of crop exports is projected to be $24.9 billion (in 2016-17 dollars) in 2021-22, 7 per cent higher than the average of $23.2 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. The value of livestock exports is projected to be $21.8 billion (in 2016-17 dollars) in 2021-22, 10 per cent higher than the average of $19.8 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in real terms. * Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent in 2017-18 to $1.5 billion, after decreasing by a forecast 3.4 per cent in 2016-17. Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: * World economic growth is assumed to be 3.3 per cent in 2017 and 3.4 per cent in 2018. Growth is expected to rise further to around 3.5 per cent in 2019 before declining to 3.4 per cent in 2021 and 3.3 per cent in 2022. * Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.8 per cent in 2017-18. Over the medium term to 2021-22, economic growth is assumed to average around 3 per cent. * The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2017-18, slightly lower than the forecast average of US75 cents in 2016-17. It is assum
Resource URL Description:
0 : Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2017 - Report - PDF [15.6 MB]

1 : Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2017 - Report with lower resolution images - PDF [6.8 MB]

2 : Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2017 - Infographic - PDF [0.8 MB]

3 : Productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries - Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2017 - PDF [3.0 MB]

4 : Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2017 - Commodities - data tables - MS Excel [0.2 MB]

5 : Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2017 - Statistics - data tables - MS Excel [0.3 MB]
Publisher:
ABARES : Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences : Department of Agriculture
Author:
ABARES
Right Management:
Use constraints: copyright

Other constraints: Licence type:Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2017

Other constraints: All material in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence, save for content supplied by third parties, logos and the Commonwealth Coat of Arms. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence is a standard form licence agreement that allows you to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this publication provided you attribute the work. (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/)

Other constraints: This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as: ABARES 2017, Agricultural commodities: March quarter 2017. CC BY 3.0
Identifier:
ISBN 978-1-74323-330-6 (online)

ISSN 1839-5627 (online)
Asset Name:
pb_agcomd9abcc20170307_0S6mp